She was very impressive on Irish debut at Fairyhouse beating Zarak the Brave and backed it up at Leopardstown at Christmas before being narrowly beaten by Gala Marceau at the DRF. Lossiemouth was severely hampered at one stage and looked well beaten before staying on strongly to finish only 2.5 Lengths behind the winner. I’ve spoken historically about “the rule of two”, whereby we get past the notion that a single heavy ground win might have been in a very weak race or by some sort of fluke. Two wins affirms that a horse is definitely suited – or can at least handle – extreme going. Naturally, if the horse is two from five, it will be more compelling than if it’s two from 25! And, of course, as we should never tire of saying, the price makes the play.
All of Ireland will be screaming for Samcro – and there’s no Cheltenham thrill like it
Previous experience of this tricky cross country course is always invaluable and there is no shortage of proven performers in this tight field. Perhaps the most progressive is BLESS THE WINGS and he is a tentative choice. Cause of Causes, Cantlow and Josies Orders all have similar sorts of claims. The Last Samuri, a smart horse at Aintree, is interesting. He passed him in the air at the last and then sprinted up the hill as he has done here now three years in succession, in the Supreme, then the Arkle and now the Champion Chase, a deja-deja-vu.
- By the end of the 1830s, another of Britain’s great races – the Grand National – had been established at Aintree.
- I think we will stay at a mile, looking at him today he could step up a little bit further, but we will see.
- Willie has the outsider Mercurey, too, this one running in the Mr Blobby / Susannah Ricci colours.
- 1m 7f of Grade 1 jump racing coming up – can anyone stop the highly-rated Altior?
- Performances are influenced by factors such as a horse’s fitness, the distance of the race and whether the ground is soft and boggy or firm and fast.
Runners and race-by-race tips for Goodwood on Friday
Her stablemate Nashwa is another with huge ability but is likely to need this run after a break. So that leaves Guineas heroine Elmalka and See The Fire as the main dangers. Despite being novices, most horses running in the Festival novice races have an official rating.
Thunder Sparks
Luck in running is needed by all; most have a little more meat on their price than this lad. Willie is 0/14 in this race but went very close last year when Saint Sam was second (Ciel De Neige 3rd in 2019, too). Of that last named cohort, maybe Teahupoo has advanced his claims since the turn of the year. He’s still yet to race in Grade 1 company, but has been dominant in winning a brace of Grade 3’s either side of a Grade 2 score. He’s looked like there is plenty more to come but his potential is more than factored into quotes of 8/1 especially when noting his lack of form on a sound surface (for which, granted, he could improve, though I don’t expect him to). Trained by Colin Tizzard, his sole defeat in four progressive chase starts was when well seen off, but still best of the rest, behind Edwardstone in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in December.
Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV)
The Glancing Queen will no doubt be well fancied for the feature race, but she hasn’t been the soundest jumper over hurdles and is worth opposing on her chase debut. Donald McCain is on a tremendous run of form (35% Strike Rate last 14 days) and there is every reason to believe she could add to the stables recent successes. If Chacun Pour Soi runs and wins at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend – he’s currently a best priced 4/9 so to do – he’ll be shorter for the winning margin bets and odds on for the Champion Chase. If he doesn’t run, he’ll be circa evens on the day assuming he shows up. But, like I say, I think he’s a more robust animal this season, and I’m prepared to back that perception.
Bleu Berry wins the Coral Cup
There will be plenty of interest in Black Corton, the mount of Bryony Frost. The pair have formed a formidable team this season and should be thereabouts. Elegant Escape has stamina as his strong suit and should make a bold show. Ballyoptic is too inconsistent to have too much faith in but there is no denying his ability. “But by the time he got to the winning post he was miles away and gone.
- They are lean, mean, powerful machines, athletes that can get to 60 kilometres an hour from a standing start in just five strides.
- He hasn’t had a runner, let alone a winner, since 2nd March and has just one entered pre-Cheltenham, at Plumpton on Monday.
- When looking at the over-rounds for the last 13 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2022 when the race had an over-round of 111%.
- With livestreams, plenty of odds, and fast horse racing results, bookies work hard to ensure that bettors have everything they need to master this type of wagering.
- Data on the Timeform website is protected by © and database rights and may not be used for any purpose without a licence.
- Just imagine as they freewheel down the hill if he can exclaim, “Jack Kennedy and Samcro are making ground, he hasn’t moved a muscle”.
THE SUN RACING MEMBERS ENCLOSURE
- Multiple Grand National winners have scored at Bangor, while Gold Cup winning trio Norton’s Coin, Mr Mulligan and Denman all tasted success there before their finest hour.
- Ardkilly Witness is suited by this track and is expected to run Rathlin Rose very close.
- He’s since won the 2m4f Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ at Aintree, and then this season he’s added a Grade 3 at Down Royal and the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown.
- His main challenger looks like being Cool Survivor, who certainly has strong appeal from a mark of 140 on handicap debut, having finished a good fourth at Grade 1 level last time out.
Mistakes with his fencing likely contributed to him dropping out of contention from before three out, and he was well beaten when unshipping Paul Townend at the last. If you liked Ballyburn for this, his representative is the Henry de Bromhead-trained Slade Steel, who was third and second to the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle favourite in a bumper and a Grade 1 novice hurdle respectively. Henry is perhaps the best target trainer of all in recent Festivals, his hit rate at the last five being a scarcely believable one in seven. Foxy Jacks has run cross country here three times and failed to get round twice, though he did win on the other occasion! That was in the November handicap last year in which the heavyweights Delta Work and Galvin both went missing, presumed not off.
My big 3-1 NAP loves soft ground and heads to Ascot in great form
Icing On The Cake unseated at the third in that Ludlow race having dug deep to win at Newbury on his previous outing. There are a few firms quoting double figures for his chances. This year’s fundraiser will again be centred around the Cheltenham Festival. For a donation of £25 you will get the exclusive Cheltenham preview, horses to follow direct from the Lambourn trainers plus membership for the period 11th to 19th March. Your full £25 will go directly to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust. Chef D’Oeuvre won unchallenged on desperate ground at Hereford and that piece of form is difficult to evaluate.
The Secret Behind Bolts Up Daily: Changing the Horse Racing Game
His progressive chase form over three miles plus is enough to put him in with a solid shout anyway, but it was his latest performance, when chasing home the smart Our Duke over 2½ miles that underlines his class. The trip would have been plenty sharp enough for Presenting Percy – he had won over 3m 5f two runs earlier – yet he traded blows with a horse that is third favourite for Friday’s Timico Gold Cup. As the coming week progresses the ground will be drying which brings a number of factors into play.
Value Bet tips: Saturday, December 23
So we have come a long way without having to delve too deeply into the form book. The string of numbers to the left of each horse’s name are the form figures and they are places they have finished in their most recent races, reading from left to right with regards to their latest position. So if a horse has figures of , it would have won its last three races but finished sixth the time before. I’ve always been a big believer that it’s the best horse who wins the race and not necessarily the best trainer or jockey, but that’s a debate that continues to run.
We’ll have contributions from our resident tipster as well as the chief sports writer, Paul Hayward, racing correspondent, Marcus Armytage and our Centaur correspondent, Alan Tyers. Stays further than 2m and loves heavy ground so has to be a serious player. Mullins-trained Douvan ‘drifting like a barge’ in the betting, according to Matt Chapman. Altior sees off Min to retain his unbeaten record over obstacles. Altior’s Champion Chase victory was his 13th win in his last 13 races – that’s also Nicky Henderson’s fifth victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Pre-race favourite Cause of Causes is right at the back of the field.
- Her price represents a very solid each way bet in an open section and, as you know by now, if she doesn’t run it’s money back.
- He has gone close a few times in these big handicaps and if his top rider can smuggle him through then he has every chance.
- Noisy Jazz is going the right way and could give the selection a race if getting cover early.
- Only deposits via cards will qualify (Apple Pay excluded).
- My opinion is that those two perspectives are not mutually exclusive and both hold water.
- Winners of one or two races on heavy are 1.4 times more likely to win than heavy maidens; and winners of three heavy ground races previously are more than 1.5 times more likely to prevail than maidens on that extreme of going.
- The Marsh feels a bit like the coward’s route for a horse boasting his CV.
Aidan O’Brien’s Breeders’ Cup winner Unquestionable set the pace, with fellow Ballydoyle runner Henry Longfellow just in behind, while William Buick dropped Notable Speech out in the rear. Hannon has not been shy in making it known how highly he regards his colt, although he could have been forgiven if his confidence had been slightly dented when he was beaten by Notable Speech at Newmarket. Bit to find with Politologue on Tingle Creek form; unlikely winner. The course commentator has the opportunity to whip Cheltenham in to a frenzy right from the first race.
The best of the home guard could be Jpr One, trained by Joe Tizzard. Joe is in good form – two notable winners at Sandown’s big weekend fixture – and this one has a nice bit of experience after four chase outings. He unseated at the last over course and distance in November, when seemingly having the race in the bag, but had a win before and since. Matata is one of the pace angles in the field and that may see him do too much too soon, whereas Jpr One tends to be handy but off the speed. Closest to A Dream To Share in last year’s Grade 1 Punchestown bumper was Tullyhill, who got off the mark at the second time of asking over timber having been second on debut at odds of 1-8.
Ayr Gold Cup Jockey Statistics
Losses have been steepest in Grade 1 contests with your £1 bet returning on average 79p (loss of 21p in the £). Horses that won a Grade 1 contest LTO have scored close to one race in every four which is impressive. Backing all runners would have yielded a good profit also of over 22p in the £. Horses winning LTO in either Grade 2, 3 or Listed company have very similar strike rates, but it is Listed LTO winners who have created the best profit (£49.48 returning 41p in the £). We will examine Irish trainers versus UK trainers in more detail later, but Irish-trained clear favourites have done well.
Distinction brings solid form to the table as well and looks the most obvious danger on paper. He was only beaten half a length at Catterick and is just 1lb higher so should run his race. Tamaska has won 2 of his last 3 and looks best of the rest but another 2lb rise is going to ask more of him and he only prevailed by a neck last time at Doncaster from an exposed sort. Nat Love has won over this C&D before but was held by the fav last time. I was very pleased that I tipped three on Tuesday, including Lizzie Kelly on Coo Star Sivola at 5-1.
Spangled Mac
You can also place single bets from the Bet Slip – just click the price in the Bet Slip. Amber Cottage, Cheltenham A cosy, semi-detached, holiday home built in traditional, honey-coloured Cotswold stone made even more fantastic thanks to shared facilities including an outdoor swimming pool. This special spot was also once part of the stables to a once neighbouring 18th-century coaching inn, with evidence of this time still seen in the cottage’s ancient, exposed beams. The area surrounding Cheltenham racecourse is one of idyllic beauty thanks to undulating hills, wild woodland and babbling streams. Cleeve Hill for example, where the Gold Cup originated, is the highest point both of the Cotswolds hill range and in Gloucestershire.
Horse racing tips
- This son of Churchill ran his best race to date when beaten a length over C&D last month and given that form has been well advertised since I think he can go one better here.
- The Evens to 9/4 bracket has proved the most profitable in ROI terms and, taking shorter priced runners as a whole, the market has been a pretty good guide.
- As we can see, strike rates are low across the board, but if there is an area to concentrate on, it does seem to be last day winners.
- In that favourite data, the years 2008 to 2012 saw the smallest market leader numbers by some margin.
- Tamaska has won 2 of his last 3 and looks best of the rest but another 2lb rise is going to ask more of him and he only prevailed by a neck last time at Doncaster from an exposed sort.
- Despite the drift from an opening 13/8 – getting around 2/1 for an even money chance is clearly value.
Jonbon is expected to sit slightly off the fiercest of the sizzle. Rare Edition was very disappointing when only second in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, a race won in 2020 by Shishkin en route to Supreme glory. He apparently scoped dirty after the race and there has been some whispering about back spasms, both of which appear to have now been resolved.
AND of course this type of favourite can be confidently predicted before the off. Just back the one that’s been given three quiet runs and a mark that’s well below what it’s really capable of. The two I like most are Libberty Hunter and Hardy du Seuil with the former looking really solid in the conditions. He would be unbeaten over fences but for overjumping Bolts Up Daily on debut at Chepstow and has added wins at Wincanton and on the New Course here, beating Arkle hope Matata by a length in a 2m handicap in December. Those wins have come on heavy and soft ground and he coped well with the jumping test when scoring last time. A better question might be to ask which horses can put him under pressure, so let’s posit that one.
Just imagine as they freewheel down the hill if he can exclaim, “Jack Kennedy and Samcro are making ground, he hasn’t moved a muscle”. 1m 7f of Grade 1 jump racing coming up – can anyone stop the highly-rated Altior? He goes off at even-money after being punted into odds-on before the start. Altior looked to be struggling but his jockey held him together.
He’ll be finishing strongly and looks a solid each way alternative to a ‘nothing between them’ top of the market. If we’re looking for the Hail Mary, a phrase our editor Matt loves so much, then it has to be Latin Verse. He looks so unlike a Boodles winner it’s untrue – this will be his seventh hurdles start and he’s already raced in an all-aged handicap at Ludlow last time out, one which he won by no fewer than 19 lengths. A 10lb rise for that win not only looks lenient – Timeform expected him to get a stone and more – but it creeps him right into the bottom of the handicap. If you’re a lover of figures (and we are, of course) he comes out well on both form and time.
AL AASY is not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time. Al Qareem is a gritty front runner and showed plenty of guts to win this last year. He was no match for Al Aasy last time but this track and ground brings out the best in him. As with the handicap hurdles, it’s been hard work for the girls. Only 19 have shown up but, while they have failed to win, they have recorded an impressive five placed efforts (26.32% place rate vs 18.18% for the boys). But it is worth further squinting at the data, because it relates that those aged five or six notched 27 of the 39 wins (69%) from just 49% of the runners.
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